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Dave Slayer
Guest
How bad will the Swine Flu get? Has the world ever faced a pandemic like this?
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Lewis
Member
I'll tell you how bad.
Predicting the path of a swine flu outbreak is next to impossible, public health officials say. But Dr. Ira Longini has spent more than three decades trying to do just that.
And Longini says the apparent new strain of swine flu appears to be here to stay. "We are probably going to have to live with this virus for some time," he told CNN.
Longini specializes in the mathematical and statistical theory of epidemics. He works at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute at the Hutchinson Research Center in Seattle, Washington.
The researcher studies simulations of hypothetical influenzas and how they would spread across the United States. For the moment, he said, there is not enough information about the swine flu that has sickened hundreds in Mexico and about 50 people in the United States to accurately forecast how the disease will travel.
But Longini's simulations of a fictional killer flu that were ordered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show the importance of steps health officials can take to prevent further spread of the virus. These measures include "social distancing," or encouraging those sickened with the flu to stay home or seek medical treatment; closing places where groups of people gather; and making anti-flu medications available to large portions of the population.
Dr. Gupta in Mexico
Dr. Sanjay Gupta traces the origins of the swine flu. What's the real risk of pandemic?
Tonight, 10 ET
see full schedule »
In the simulations, Longini said, these forms of containment reduce the sickness by nearly two-thirds.
"The name of the game is to slow transmission until a well-matched vaccine can be made and distributed. I am fairly optimistic we can do that," he said. Video Watch how computer models simulate an outbreak's spread »http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/flu.computer.modeling/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
So far, Longini said, it appears that everyone sickened by swine flu in the United States contracted the disease while traveling in Mexico, the apparent epicenter of the outbreak.
But he cautioned: "That could change very fast. Obviously people in these communities could also get on airplanes and go other places or get on buses or cars or trucks and move around. The picture may change very rapidly. Basically, influenza is going to go where people go."
Don't Miss
* Mexico City at epicenter of spreading swine flu fears
* World battles swine flu as death toll rises
* Swine flu creates controversy on Twitter
* In Depth: Swine Flu
Health officials agree that the worst may still be yet to come.
"It is too soon for us to say what the spectrum is," Dr. Richard Besser, the acting director of the CDC, said Monday on Larry King Live. "We are going to see cases in this country that are more severe, individuals who are hospitalized, and I would not be surprised if we see deaths in this country."
Longini said health officials are doing everything they can to mitigate how widely the swine flu spreads in the United States. Even if authorities examined everyone entering the country, Longini said, it would not solve the problem.
"Through simulations and mathematical work we've shown that travel restrictions -- although potentially useful in slowing spread [of swine flu] -- they are not going to stop it," Longini said. "We can screen airline passengers, but there all those asymptomatic or incubating people we would miss. So you really have to deal with these outbreaks locally, everywhere they are occurring." Video Watch how countries are scanning travelers »
Longini said he hopes that as more data come in about the outbreak, it will help to answer questions researchers have about why the swine flu appears more deadly in the Mexico cases than the ones in the United States. Researchers also hope to find out why such a large percentage of fatalities in Mexico are young people whose healthy immune systems usually protect them from the flu.
But there is good news, Longini said, at least temporarily, for populations in certain areas. In North America and Europe, summer will soon begin, ending the traditional flu season. Even outbreaks such as swine flu tend to follow standard flu season patterns, he said.
Other parts of the world may not be so lucky.
"Timing is terrible for people in the Southern Hemisphere -- places like New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, parts of South America, "Longini said. "They are just coming into their flu season."
CNN
Predicting the path of a swine flu outbreak is next to impossible, public health officials say. But Dr. Ira Longini has spent more than three decades trying to do just that.
And Longini says the apparent new strain of swine flu appears to be here to stay. "We are probably going to have to live with this virus for some time," he told CNN.
Longini specializes in the mathematical and statistical theory of epidemics. He works at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute at the Hutchinson Research Center in Seattle, Washington.
The researcher studies simulations of hypothetical influenzas and how they would spread across the United States. For the moment, he said, there is not enough information about the swine flu that has sickened hundreds in Mexico and about 50 people in the United States to accurately forecast how the disease will travel.
But Longini's simulations of a fictional killer flu that were ordered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show the importance of steps health officials can take to prevent further spread of the virus. These measures include "social distancing," or encouraging those sickened with the flu to stay home or seek medical treatment; closing places where groups of people gather; and making anti-flu medications available to large portions of the population.
Dr. Gupta in Mexico
Dr. Sanjay Gupta traces the origins of the swine flu. What's the real risk of pandemic?
Tonight, 10 ET
see full schedule »
In the simulations, Longini said, these forms of containment reduce the sickness by nearly two-thirds.
"The name of the game is to slow transmission until a well-matched vaccine can be made and distributed. I am fairly optimistic we can do that," he said. Video Watch how computer models simulate an outbreak's spread »http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/flu.computer.modeling/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
So far, Longini said, it appears that everyone sickened by swine flu in the United States contracted the disease while traveling in Mexico, the apparent epicenter of the outbreak.
But he cautioned: "That could change very fast. Obviously people in these communities could also get on airplanes and go other places or get on buses or cars or trucks and move around. The picture may change very rapidly. Basically, influenza is going to go where people go."
Don't Miss
* Mexico City at epicenter of spreading swine flu fears
* World battles swine flu as death toll rises
* Swine flu creates controversy on Twitter
* In Depth: Swine Flu
Health officials agree that the worst may still be yet to come.
"It is too soon for us to say what the spectrum is," Dr. Richard Besser, the acting director of the CDC, said Monday on Larry King Live. "We are going to see cases in this country that are more severe, individuals who are hospitalized, and I would not be surprised if we see deaths in this country."
Longini said health officials are doing everything they can to mitigate how widely the swine flu spreads in the United States. Even if authorities examined everyone entering the country, Longini said, it would not solve the problem.
"Through simulations and mathematical work we've shown that travel restrictions -- although potentially useful in slowing spread [of swine flu] -- they are not going to stop it," Longini said. "We can screen airline passengers, but there all those asymptomatic or incubating people we would miss. So you really have to deal with these outbreaks locally, everywhere they are occurring." Video Watch how countries are scanning travelers »
Longini said he hopes that as more data come in about the outbreak, it will help to answer questions researchers have about why the swine flu appears more deadly in the Mexico cases than the ones in the United States. Researchers also hope to find out why such a large percentage of fatalities in Mexico are young people whose healthy immune systems usually protect them from the flu.
But there is good news, Longini said, at least temporarily, for populations in certain areas. In North America and Europe, summer will soon begin, ending the traditional flu season. Even outbreaks such as swine flu tend to follow standard flu season patterns, he said.
Other parts of the world may not be so lucky.
"Timing is terrible for people in the Southern Hemisphere -- places like New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, parts of South America, "Longini said. "They are just coming into their flu season."
CNN
Caroline H
Member
I thought this was interesting, it's good to have some common sense in the media every now and then 
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/artic ... e-Flu.aspx
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/artic ... e-Flu.aspx
LaMexicana
Member
It's not going to get bad. Everyone is hyping it up way too much and giving Mexico a bad name.
Everyone needs to CALM DOWN
And, like I heard on the radio this morning, God has it under no matter how bad we think it is. Humans are so dramatic.
Everyone needs to CALM DOWN
And, like I heard on the radio this morning, God has it under no matter how bad we think it is. Humans are so dramatic.
D
Dave Slayer
Guest
LaMexicana said:It's not going to get bad. Everyone is hyping it up way too much and giving Mexico a bad name.
Everyone needs to CALM DOWN
And, like I heard on the radio this morning, God has it under no matter how bad we think it is. Humans are so dramatic.
It is good to be over cautious than not cautious enough though. I really do not want Mexico to get a bad name over this either.
LaMexicana
Member
I suppose. We take our vitamin C around here...4000mg a day! It's good for ya!Dave Slayer said:LaMexicana said:It's not going to get bad. Everyone is hyping it up way too much and giving Mexico a bad name.
Everyone needs to CALM DOWN
And, like I heard on the radio this morning, God has it under no matter how bad we think it is. Humans are so dramatic.
It is good to be over cautious than not cautious enough though. I really do not want Mexico to get a bad name over this either.
And Mexico already got a bad name. It causes violence inside of me to hear such close minded opinions about it. My mom just got back on Monday from Chihuahua which has not been affected, she was visiting my grandpa. She talked to my uncle who is a priest in Monterrey which is near Mexico City and he has to wear a mask at all times. They're not allowed to shake hands, kiss (Mexicans greet each other by kissing on the cheek) and they're not allowing them to hold masses anymore. So they're trying their best. It makes me sad when it comes to it effecting Mexico.
But the world will move on just like it always does.
Or who knows...maybe this is the end...? AAAAAAAAHHHHH!
LaMexicana
Member
So instead of Americans being so worried, maybe we should lend a helping hand to countries less forunate that don't have access to healthcare the way we do. Ok, high fives, I'm done.
We have access to healthcare? :o
Just kidding, but really...I'm one of those people that are too poor to afford private health insurance but make too much income to receive public health insurance. However, my family does qualify for Medicaid for my kids, for which I am truly grateful.
G
GojuBrian
Guest
Aren't we all supposed to be sick and dead from this traumatic outbreak by now? 