I like to keep a personal almanac to record things like precipitation amounts, high/low temperature extremes, etc. I was looking at my records from last year and I found a rather interesting or startling situation depending on your perspective.
<O:p</O:p
Like this year we had above average snow last year. This year we had even more with new records set.
<O:p</O:p
Last year the temperatures throughout the third week of February were somewhat close to normal. This year we experienced above normal for part of the third week resulting in a mid-winter thaw but since then we dropped to more normal temps for a few days and received an addition dumping of snow; about 10†around here.
<O:p</O:p
Last year the morning lows from February 24th through the 26th dropped below normal to the -10 degree range. This year we are experiencing the same thing. Yesterday (-6), today (-8), and tomorrow’s forecast low is -6.
<O:p</O:p
Here’s where it gets interesting. Last year I recorded -13 on the 24th, -4 on the 25th, and -8 on the 26th. On the 27th I recorded a high of 38 and the warm weather continued after that. On March 7, just a week later, I noted that we did not freeze overnight. I recorded the same note on the 12th and by March 15, just two weeks from now, I noted that most of the snow had melted away.
<O:p</O:p
Think about it. The week of warm weather we experienced last week thawed just enough to fill up the low ground but not actually start flowing downstream to speak of. Therefore, the watershed is primed and ready to overflow like a cup that is full to the rim and waiting to spill over. If it warms up like last year and thaws all of this snow in two weeks again, it will all rush to the rivers and they will rise rapidly with virtually zero delayed warning.
<O:p</O:p
With the saturated ground from excessive rains last fall to rivers that are already higher than normal for this time of year to the record snow levels this winter, this could be a year for the record books for flooding including the Red River of the North and the Mississippi river watershed including the Minnesota, St. Croix, and Missouri if we experience a similar thaw this year as we did last year. I feel sorry for those living on the flood plains and I hope they have already prepared. If you’re on the plain and haven’t prepared yet, you best get busy because you may not have time once this process starts and the later it gets in the year before we start to thaw, the higher the potential for a sudden shift in the weather.
<O:p</O:p
Like this year we had above average snow last year. This year we had even more with new records set.
<O:p</O:p
Last year the temperatures throughout the third week of February were somewhat close to normal. This year we experienced above normal for part of the third week resulting in a mid-winter thaw but since then we dropped to more normal temps for a few days and received an addition dumping of snow; about 10†around here.
<O:p</O:p
Last year the morning lows from February 24th through the 26th dropped below normal to the -10 degree range. This year we are experiencing the same thing. Yesterday (-6), today (-8), and tomorrow’s forecast low is -6.
<O:p</O:p
Here’s where it gets interesting. Last year I recorded -13 on the 24th, -4 on the 25th, and -8 on the 26th. On the 27th I recorded a high of 38 and the warm weather continued after that. On March 7, just a week later, I noted that we did not freeze overnight. I recorded the same note on the 12th and by March 15, just two weeks from now, I noted that most of the snow had melted away.
<O:p</O:p
Think about it. The week of warm weather we experienced last week thawed just enough to fill up the low ground but not actually start flowing downstream to speak of. Therefore, the watershed is primed and ready to overflow like a cup that is full to the rim and waiting to spill over. If it warms up like last year and thaws all of this snow in two weeks again, it will all rush to the rivers and they will rise rapidly with virtually zero delayed warning.
<O:p</O:p
With the saturated ground from excessive rains last fall to rivers that are already higher than normal for this time of year to the record snow levels this winter, this could be a year for the record books for flooding including the Red River of the North and the Mississippi river watershed including the Minnesota, St. Croix, and Missouri if we experience a similar thaw this year as we did last year. I feel sorry for those living on the flood plains and I hope they have already prepared. If you’re on the plain and haven’t prepared yet, you best get busy because you may not have time once this process starts and the later it gets in the year before we start to thaw, the higher the potential for a sudden shift in the weather.