[_ Old Earth _] How many times does the same thing 'evolve independently'?

[lordkalvan]

I was merely being conservative. I think it is totally impossible for flight to have 'evolved' at all. Not all the statistical fudging in the world will conceal the fact of it's biological impossibility.

Now you know (I hope) that 4 independent events occurring, each with a probability of 1 in 100,000, has a joint probability of 1 in (100,000) exp 4. Which is the figure I quoted.

The 4 refers to the 4 different kinds of flying organisms.

If the probability I quoted is, as you say (and I think you're correct) too high, then perhaps 1 in 10,000,000 is more correct. Now 1 in (10,000,000)exp 4 is impossibly small, and the hypothesis should be abandoned.

Now if you wish to make things even more impossible, consider the number if individual flying insect species, bird species, bat species and pterosaur species, all of which had to evolve at some point in time.

If they 'evolved' independently, then who knows what the probability would become?

Care to do another calculation?

Given that the fundamental basis for your statistical probabilities and the calculations you have used them for have already been shown to be deeply flawed and that your only counter-argument is assertion from personal incredulity complete with scare quotes - 'I think it is totally impossible for flight to have 'evolved' at all.' - demanding that 'another calculation' be done using these flawed assumptions to substantiate your personal incredulity seems rather to fly in the face of reason.

 

[Barbarian]

Care to do another calculation?

Sure. Humans have roughly 30,000 genes. Let's be absurdly conservative and say there there are only two alleles for each one.

Now, given the genomes of your great-great-grandparents, calculate the likelihood of you.

Turns out you're even less likely than your estimate of the likelihood of flight evolving four times. And yet here you are.

Reality tops anyone's reasoning.