[__ Science __ ] NOAA Predicts 2020 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

[Barbarian]

NOAA Predicts 2020 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record. On Dec. 14, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calculated that last month was the second-hottest November on record after 2015. NASA and Copernicus Climate Change Service said it was actually the hottest November on record because of coverage over the poles that NOAA does not have. If December continues to be as warm as it has, 2020 will be documented as the hottest year on record. According to NOAA, there's a 55% chance that will happen. . NASA agreed that 2020 is likely to go down as the hottest year on record. Both NOAA and NASA starting keeping records in 1880

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Michael74]

In the transition from an ice age to an interglacial, the global mean (average) temperature rises quickly and steadily by about 10–12°C to a maximum of 2–3°C above the current temperature. Then, almost as quickly (but not so steadily), it falls by about 10°C, dropping the world back into an ice age. Figure 1 shows this pattern for the three ice ages that preceded the most recent one.

Dr. Hugh Ross says that warm temperatures leads to ice ages. As the polar caps melt, this puts additional clouds into the air. The clouds reflect sunlight, and precipitate snow on northern continents. The additional snow also reflects sunlight. The earth cools, and northern continents get covered in thousands of feet of ice.

This has been the pattern ever since continental plates moved to their current locations. Antarctica in particular exerts a cooling effect by reflecting light off of its snow. The Himalayan mountains also do so to some degree. Dr. Ross's book "Weathering Climate Change" makes the case for his thesis in detail.

Dr. Ross also posits that the Younger Dryas postponed the usual warm temperature leading to another ice age. Then man's activity further balanced cooling effects until about 1950, at which point the earth started warming again.

If Dr. Ross is correct, much of the USA will be covered in ice sheets in a thousand years. Warming this century enough to start the next ice age cycle next century.

An interesting read if the topic interests you.

 

[Barbarian]

It's possible. Already, warmer seas are leading to greater snowfall. The present trend is to loss of ice cover in northern latitudes and that will decrease albedo, and hasten warming. Likewise, melting tundra will release a lot of methane, which is an even more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

It's difficult to say which way it will go in a thousand years time.

 

[Michael74]

Dr. Ross also made the point that even if global temp remained where it is now, the pole would still melt. The cause is all the soot deposited on it over the years absorbs sunlight better than clean snow/ice.

There are things that can be done, but they must be well thought out.

 

[Barbarian]

Dr. Ross also made the point that even if global temp remained where it is now, the pole would still melt. The cause is all the soot deposited on it over the years absorbs sunlight better than clean snow/ice.

That has some effect, but the climate is now warm enough, as Ross says, that melting will continue unless global temperatures go down to earlier levels. Melting sea ice is a problem for some animals like polar bears, but it isn't a threat to humanity, since melting sea ice won't raise ocean levels. Melting glaciers on Greenland are a huge threat, because they will raise global ocean levels.

There is one concern; melt water might move south in the gap between North America and Greenland. Being less dense than saltwater, it could possibly disrupt the Gulf Stream that keeps Northern Europe relatively warm. Ironically, global warming might cool off England and Scandinavia.

 

[Michael74]

The recent few thousand years have been an unusually pleasant period in earth's history. The previous ice age was intense, and retreating glaciers scoured rocks to bring an abundance of loess for farming during this interglacial. The interglacial itself is exceptionally pleasant and long lasting compared to history.

Farming is the primary issue. People can move inland from the coasts, or build dikes like the Dutch do. Once mountain ice melts away, irrigation of farmland will become problematical. Desalination is super energy intensive, and won't easily replace mountain ice melt moving downhill to farmland. The Himalayas provide irrigation for some very populous areas of Asia. The Rockies and Appalachians irrigate much of the US. In addition, loess from the previous ice age is becoming scarcer.