C
Choir Loft
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So said Alex Jones, although I understand not too many here are into conspiracy stuff and that was not my intent. But what grabbed my attention is now O'Reily on the Factor was saying the same thing. BOTH men haven't the faintest idea what it is or what it will involve, whether economic, war, governments or maybe a combination. But in the former case Alex said "everyone" he talked to feels that 'something is about to change' or something 'fundamentally shifted' world-wide.
I really think this is an end-time topic, but a grab-for-all type topic where anything goes, I guess. My thought is that even the carnal mind may sense a spiritual shift in the atmosphere; a foreboding that Satan will soon be cast out and his time is short so-to-speak, and maybe something from heaven will come to earth soon.
I open the floor for comments ----
I've been tracking economic trends for several years and a few indicators went yellow around the beginning of the year (2015). One can watch the stock market, but apart from weekly vacillations monitored by the volatility index, one can't really see much as far as a trend. One can also monitor commodities such as gold or oil. Those aren't much better unless you have a financial interest in the price for investment purposes.
Three major financial changes are expected in the fall of 2015.
(1)One indicator that is interesting to watch is the SDR/XDR, known originally as Special Drawing Rights. Set up by the IMF, the SDR is a kind of currency basket which is used for international bank trading. There are 4 national currencies currently in the basket; The USD, the UK pound, the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The major currency in the SDR basket as of this writing is the USD. Prices of goods are determined by the valuation of the currencies in the basket and the nations that participate can determine to a great extent the price commodities and real goods are bought and sold for in the international market. Every five years the SDR basket is reviewed. The last review was conducted in 2010. The next one is due in October 2015 and the major issue expected is the addition of the Chinese Yuan to the group. Since currencies in the SDR are valued by GNP and since the US GNP is mostly an exaggerated figure, the Chinese Yuan or Renminbi is expected to assume immediate primary status. If this happens it may signal a major change in the international cost of goods and commodities.
(2) A second major indicator of economic trends is the BDI-Y or Baltic Dry Index. This number is calculated daily by shipping companies throughout the globe, not just the ones that serve the Baltic area. As you are aware, nearly all goods and commodities are shipped via sea transport. The number of ships and what ship owners charge for transport varies. Shipping companies such as the Maersk Group tend to keep their carriers (dry bulk only - no oilers considered in this index) slightly below demand so as to be able to charge a profitable amount for transport. When the global economy burns hot, more ships will be built to accommodate the demand for transport. When the global economy cools, ships are retired. A shipping company cannot afford to 'park' too many ships, so they are sold for scrap. The index, therefore, is considered to be an accurate reflection of future economic trends. AS OF JANUARY 2015 THE INDEX HAS LITERALLY GONE FLAT! It has been the lowest in recorded history. This trend can also be verified by a google search of the boom in ship scrapping. India in particular has a booming ship scrapping business. The reader should also be aware that it takes two to three years to build a ship, so the absolute earliest turn-around for the global economy is 2.5 to 3.5 years on average (assuming a miracle happened and everything went up tomorrow morning).
(3) The third major shift in financial activity is the expected change in the Federal Reserve interest rate. The IMF has asked the Fed NOT to change the current level, NOT to mess with it. Knowing American bankers, however, many financial pundits expect the rate to go up. Many fear this will signal a panic, but the truth is that even experts don't know if it would cause an inflationary cycle or a deflationary cycle. Those who make the big decisions generally retreat from any activity that will cause the dollar to increase in value, therefore the interest rate may be expected to be raised at least a full point.
General impressions of the Global financial future......
A lot of fear mongering is going on regarding the US debt. For the purposes of this post, it's generally rated at about 100% of GNP. Other nations are far worse. Greece, for example is close to 150% and Japan, one of the largest industrial nations on the planet carries a whopping 240%. I've read no articles proclaiming disaster beginning with a collapse of the Yen, yet this national currency is the most fragile of all. It is not a great leap of imagination to expect a global financial disaster beginning with a sudden collapse of the Yen.
I've divided all the financial noise out there into four groups;
-Religious prophecy (end times alignment of nations, the Year of Jubilee calculations, etc.)
-Pseudo-Religious prediction (what one might call the lunatic fringe)
-Legitimate Financial advice (people that aren't selling books, videos, cable TV shows, etc.)
-The US government and the Federal Reserve
Without exception the first three groups all agree that a financial emergency can be expected within the next 6 to 18 months.
The US government and the Federal Reserve have assured us all that everything is peachy keen.
I don't think it is.
and that's me, hollering from the choir loft...
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