Three Curtains

[rstrats]

Gary,

re: "There would be no advantage either way. The car is behind 1 of 2 curtains. The odds are 50/50. Changing from curtain #1 to curtain #2 doesn't change those odds. You still have a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong."

If you read post #15 you'll see why it's to your advantage to switch.

 

[Gary]

Gary,

re: "There would be no advantage either way. The car is behind 1 of 2 curtains. The odds are 50/50. Changing from curtain #1 to curtain #2 doesn't change those odds. You still have a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong."

If you read post #15 you'll see why it's to your advantage to switch.

Post #15

That is incorrect. Think of it as two areas. Area "A" contains curtain #1 and area "B"contains curtains #2 and #3. There is a 1/3rd chance that the car is in area "A" and a 2/3rds chance that it is in area "B". Before opening any curtains, you KNOW that at least one of the curtains in area "B"doesn't have the car behind it. So by the host knowingly opening a curtain in area "B" that doesn't have a car behind it doesn't change the 2/3rds probability that area "B" still has a car in it. So it would be to your advantage to switch to the remaining curtain in area "B".

Actually it does change the probability because curtain #3 is no longer a part the equation. It was removed the second it was opened and found empty.

Area "A" has 1 curtain. Area "B" has 1 curtain. The odds are 50/50 that the car is behind either one of the curtains.


.

 

[TOG]

TOG,

You keep ignoring post #15. Tell me what is wrong with it.

Think of it as two areas. Area "A" contains curtain #1 and area "B"contains curtains #2 and #3.

It's wrong right from the start. Once curtain #3 has been opened, area B no longer has two possibilities, but just one, which is curtain #2. I have pointed this out to you in a number of posts, as have others, but you refuse to see it. The simple fact is that once curtain #3 has been opened, it is no longer part of the equation.

The TOG​

 

[rstrats]

Gary,
re: "Area 'A' has 1 curtain. Area 'B' has 1 curtain. The odds are 50/50 that the car is behind either one of the curtains."


Using the 1 curtain in area "A" and the 2 curtains in area "B" example, and before any curtain is opened, and knowing that at least one of the curtains in area "B" doesn't have the car behind it, do you agree or disagree that there is a 2/3rds chance that the car is in area "B"?

 

[Gary]

Using the 1 curtain in area "A" and the 2 curtains in area "B" example, and before any curtain is opened, and knowing that at least one of the curtains in area "B" doesn't have the car behind it, do you agree or disagree that there is a 2/3rds chance that the car is in area "B"?

If none of the curtains have been opened, how does the contestant know that one of the curtains in area "B" has no car behind it?

Using the information from the above quote, the contestant still has a 50/50 chance of winning the car.

Why?

Because you said the contestant knows that one of the curtains in area "B" has nothing behind it.

So I disagree that there is a 2/3rds chance of the car being in area "B".
.

 

[rstrats]

Gary,
re: "If none of the curtains have been opened, how does the contestant know that one of the curtains in area "B" has no car behind it?"

There are 2 curtains in area "B" and only one car is available. So you know that at least one of the curtains in area "B" doesn't have the car behind it. So even though you know that at least one curtain in area "B" does not have the car, there is a 2/3rds chance that the car is in area "B".


What would you do if after your initial pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain is opened, the host tells you that you can switch to both curtains 2 and 3? And note that the host is not trying to trick or influence you in anyway. Even If the car is behind curtain 2 or 3, he will still give you the offer to switch.

 

[rstrats]

Gary,

You have a question directed to you in post #46.

 

[rstrats]

Gary, you still have a question directed to you in post #46.

 

[Gary]

Gary, you still have a question directed to you in post #46.

I'm thinking.

.

 

[AirDancer]

Gary, you can stop thinking.

There isn't a car behind any curtain, due simply to the fact that Monty Hall and I made a deal, and I now have the car. He traded for what was in the envelope, which contained several $3 Bills.

Great deal!