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A Run on Gas

miamited said:
Hi WIP

I suppose that for those who think that everything is a conspiracy run by a cabal of pedophile child molesters...it might seem interesting. Me, I think it's just supply and demand running it's course. Although I do find it interesting that I went to worship this morning and they talked about Jesus just before the mid-term elections. Hmmmm, wonder what's up with that?

God bless,
Ted
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I don't know where you get the idea that I think "everything is a conspiracy run by cabal of pedophile child molesters." I have never suggested anything of the sort and it is improper and presumptuous for you to suggest it at all and then end your false accusations with "God bless" as if that somehow relieves you of your guilt. Do you have a superiority complex where you feel a need to try and put others down so you can feel better about yourself?

I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe politics plays a pretty major part in much of what goes on in our economy. Another example in recent memory was a couple months ago when our current administration announced the release of x number of barrels of strategic reserve for the next 8 or 9 months to relieve retail prices at the pumps. The timing was pretty obvious when 8 or 9 months at the time would put us up to November (election month) and the price of fuel is at the top of the issue heap. I have little doubt that part of the goal was to gain votes, even though it would only be a temporary relief band aid for a longer-term problem.
 
WIP said:
I don't know where you get the idea that I think "everything is a conspiracy run by cabal of pedophile child molesters." I have never suggested anything of the sort and it is improper and presumptuous for you to suggest it at all and then end your false accusations with "God bless" as if that somehow relieves you of your guilt. Do you have a superiority complex where you feel a need to try and put others down so you can feel better about yourself?

I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe politics plays a pretty major part in much of what goes on in our economy. Another example in recent memory was a couple months ago when our current administration announced the release of x number of barrels of strategic reserve for the next 8 or 9 months to relieve retail prices at the pumps. The timing was pretty obvious when 8 or 9 months at the time would put us up to November (election month) and the price of fuel is at the top of the issue heap. I have little doubt that part of the goal was to gain votes, even though it would only be a temporary relief band aid for a longer-term problem.
Click to expand...
I can find old accounts of how the Democrats in my county ,as it was a democratic majority then ,they would suddenly maintain roads and canals around election cycles .

The right only cares about fiscal responsibility when they run for office .
 
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WIP said:
Another example in recent memory was a couple months ago when our current administration announced the release of x number of barrels of strategic reserve for the next 8 or 9 months to relieve retail prices at the pumps. The timing was pretty obvious when 8 or 9 months at the time would put us up to November
Click to expand...
Hi WIP

So, that statement isn't saying that you see it as some conspiracy to release SPR oil 8-9 months before the mid-term elections. I guess I just don't understand basic statements that people make. Now, maybe you don't label such activities as 'conspiracy' and I'm willing to use other terms for that idea. Ploy, planned intent, hidden agenda. Take your pick.

God bless,
Ted
 
Hi WIP

Here's the news release from the WH concerning the oil release from the SPR:

President Biden announced the largest-ever release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which will put one million additional barrels on the market per day on average—every day—for the next six months.\

So, it would seem that it was established as a 6 month program. I thought that I had remembered it being worded as "a million barrels per day for the next 180 days." Now, you have decided, oh it sounds so much more conspiratorial if I say it was 8-9 months and that puts it right at the mid-terms. So the truth seems to be that you are the one who is trying to make this into some sort of conspiracy by fudging on the timeline so that you can put your little finger against your chin and say, "Hmmmmm, there seems to be something funny going on here" Look, you're free to see things as you feel they should be seen, but truth is truth!

Further, the release goes on to say, "The release will provide a record amount of supply to the market until the end of the year, when domestic production is expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day." However, Bloomberg says this: "The U.S. will release roughly a million barrels of oil a day from its reserves for six months beginning in May,..." So the release will end sometime in December if Bloomberg's is correct. In any case, it all has nothing to do with mid-term elections.

President Biden has a number of tools at his disposal for addressing the gasoline price hike that has pretty much everyone feeling the pain at the pump. Some national phenomenon such as this is generally exactly what presidents do. They attempt to address issues that are a concern for the citizenry. President Biden has tried to reduce our pain in several ways. He is cajoling the oil producers in the U.S. to increase their production of crude and, therefore, fuel products. He is also speaking to the OPEC+ nations and encouraging them to increase production. He is also discussing removing the federal fuel tax of some 18¢. He is also releasing crude stored within our SPR to increase crude production levels. All of these things are actions that the president is taking to address our high fuel costs.

Similarly, all across the globe, nation leaders are taking steps to address the fuel price increases in their nations also. Oil is a global commodity which every single nation needs to operate efficiently and successfully these days. Without it, most nations would grind to a halt in their trade and production. We are, of course, looking for alternative energy sources and some have come on line, but it will take a lot to replace all of the crude oil that the world uses each and every day. It is estimated that the world, that's right, the economy of every nation on the face of the earth, uses about 88 million barrels of crude oil per day. You can't just replace that kind of energy volume over night with the alternative sources that we're looking into, and some which we have already established.

So, this issue with fuel prices is a national and global issue. I'm pretty confident that President Biden isn't consciously trying to make some mid-term talking point out of it, despite your claim. Thankfully, some of the work that he has been doing does seem to be paying off. Crude oil is now trading about $20 below the recent peak and I expect it to settle somewhere around $70/bbl in the long run. At that price, gasoline will likely cost between $2.50 to $3.00. However, none of that is set in stone. There are issues around the world pretty much every month that have some effect on the price of crude oil.

However, as we move towards less crude oil dependence around the globe, due to changing fuel sources for production of electricity and vehicle operation, the oil producers are beginning to act out of fear that their big profit business may come to an end 10-15 years down the road. That is a valid concern for them and is one of the reasons that the crude producers are unwilling to spend billions of dollars to ramp up production. They know that whatever they spend today for drilling and production costs may not be recoverable in the long run as it has been in the past.

God bless,
Ted
 
miamited said:
Hi WIP

So, that statement isn't saying that you see it as some conspiracy to release SPR oil 8-9 months before the mid-term elections. I guess I just don't understand basic statements that people make. Now, maybe you don't label such activities as 'conspiracy' and I'm willing to use other terms for that idea. Ploy, planned intent, hidden agenda. Take your pick.

God bless,
Ted
Click to expand...
Are you sure you know the definition of a conspiracy? No, I did not see it as a conspiracy. Political move? Absolutely!
 
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miamited said:
Hi WIP

Here's the news release from the WH concerning the oil release from the SPR:

President Biden announced the largest-ever release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which will put one million additional barrels on the market per day on average—every day—for the next six months.\

So, it would seem that it was established as a 6 month program. I thought that I had remembered it being worded as "a million barrels per day for the next 180 days." Now, you have decided, oh it sounds so much more conspiratorial if I say it was 8-9 months and that puts it right at the mid-terms. So the truth seems to be that you are the one who is trying to make this into some sort of conspiracy by fudging on the timeline so that you can put your little finger against your chin and say, "Hmmmmm, there seems to be something funny going on here" Look, you're free to see things as you feel they should be seen, but truth is truth!

Further, the release goes on to say, "The release will provide a record amount of supply to the market until the end of the year, when domestic production is expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day." However, Bloomberg says this: "The U.S. will release roughly a million barrels of oil a day from its reserves for six months beginning in May,..." So the release will end sometime in December if Bloomberg's is correct. In any case, it all has nothing to do with mid-term elections.

President Biden has a number of tools at his disposal for addressing the gasoline price hike that has pretty much everyone feeling the pain at the pump. Some national phenomenon such as this is generally exactly what presidents do. They attempt to address issues that are a concern for the citizenry. President Biden has tried to reduce our pain in several ways. He is cajoling the oil producers in the U.S. to increase their production of crude and, therefore, fuel products. He is also speaking to the OPEC+ nations and encouraging them to increase production. He is also discussing removing the federal fuel tax of some 18¢. He is also releasing crude stored within our SPR to increase crude production levels. All of these things are actions that the president is taking to address our high fuel costs.

Similarly, all across the globe, nation leaders are taking steps to address the fuel price increases in their nations also. Oil is a global commodity which every single nation needs to operate efficiently and successfully these days. Without it, most nations would grind to a halt in their trade and production. We are, of course, looking for alternative energy sources and some have come on line, but it will take a lot to replace all of the crude oil that the world uses each and every day. It is estimated that the world, that's right, the economy of every nation on the face of the earth, uses about 88 million barrels of crude oil per day. You can't just replace that kind of energy volume over night with the alternative sources that we're looking into, and some which we have already established.

So, this issue with fuel prices is a national and global issue. I'm pretty confident that President Biden isn't consciously trying to make some mid-term talking point out of it, despite your claim. Thankfully, some of the work that he has been doing does seem to be paying off. Crude oil is now trading about $20 below the recent peak and I expect it to settle somewhere around $70/bbl in the long run. At that price, gasoline will likely cost between $2.50 to $3.00. However, none of that is set in stone. There are issues around the world pretty much every month that have some effect on the price of crude oil.

However, as we move towards less crude oil dependence around the globe, due to changing fuel sources for production of electricity and vehicle operation, the oil producers are beginning to act out of fear that their big profit business may come to an end 10-15 years down the road. That is a valid concern for them and is one of the reasons that the crude producers are unwilling to spend billions of dollars to ramp up production. They know that whatever they spend today for drilling and production costs may not be recoverable in the long run as it has been in the past.

God bless,
Ted
Click to expand...
I was working off my memory and didn't remember exactly how long or when it was to take effect. What I do recall is that when I heard the report and did the math, it would have been in effect long enough to get to within a month or two of the elections so that people would still remember the result even if they don't care that it also reduced our strategic reserves, which are intended to be a safety net for our national security. I saw it as a political move at the time and still believe that is what it was.
 
WIP said:
Are you sure you know the definition of a conspiracy? No, I did not see it as a conspiracy. Political move? Absolutely!
Click to expand...
technically, isn't pretty much everything that a 'politician' does a 'political move'? Sure, as a caring and concerned leader of the nation, I would certainly expect him to make political moves that are efforts to help the nation.
WIP said:
I was working off my memory and didn't remember exactly how long or when it was to take effect. What I do recall is that when I heard the report and did the math, it would have been in effect long enough to get to within a month or two of the elections so that people would still remember the result even if they don't care that it also reduced our strategic reserves, which are intended to be a safety net for our national security. I saw it as a political move at the time and still believe that is what it was.
Click to expand...

I agree it was a political move made by a politician. Was it somehow meant to garner some sort of support during the mid-terms? I honestly don't know why it would. I don't think that, yet, most people see it as having been particularly beneficial to the problem. Although we're told that it would have been worse if he hadn't, I don't think many of us have any idea what 'worse' could have meant. However, all of the combined efforts to address the issue do seem to be bringing the price of gasoline down...or it's just an adjustment of the markets that would have happened anyway. Who knows the future, but God?

Over all, I think that as a leader, Biden has been better than his predecessor. He's quite and respectful and he seems to be getting some things done. He even fought until the legislature produced an infrastructure bill. Something his predecessor talked a lot about but never seemed to make any headway on. He's not calling anyone derogatory names and DC seems to be running along fairly smoothly. Although it's still a long way from the better days when there wasn't quite so much partisanship. While I think the man has done a reasonable job as president, I'm not so excited to see him run again. I'd like to see some younger folks in all the higher branches of government. I don't mean 25 year olds, but 40-50 would be good.

Meanwhile, as born again believers, we sit and wait for the AC to show his hand. While we wait, we live in the world but not of the world.

God bless,
Ted
 

'Pothole Vigilantes' come out at night to fix Oakland streets | abc7news.com

Ask the so-called Pothole Vigilantes duo about what they're doing late at night out on Oakland streets, and they'll say: community service.
abc7news.com abc7news.com

I never tell a citizen not to clean sidewalks .our parks ,none of them were built by annexation. These were donated by residents who built the community around them .many go in and fix them up


I think only royal palm pointes fountain is an exemption as that was a bridge base .
 
miamited said:
technically, isn't pretty much everything that a 'politician' does a 'political move'? Sure, as a caring and concerned leader of the nation, I would certainly expect him to make political moves that are efforts to help the nation.
Click to expand...
Of course but technically the move wasn't for the purpose of helping the nation and in fact could put our nation at risk. Suppose you're the leader of a party that is stranded and it was necessary to ration food for survival. The people are hungry and beginning to lose faith in your ability to lead so in an effort to help sway their opinion you temporarily relax the rules on rationing. Is that really helping them? It could be helping them to their death.

It was a politically motivated action designed to help gain votes at the next election. I don't recall the release of the strategic reserve this spring to be of much effect. At least not around here. If you look at the average price of retail gasoline since January, there was a slight drop in gasoline prices from March to April of about $.10 but otherwise the prices continued to climb.

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miamited said:
Over all, I think that as a leader, Biden has been better than his predecessor. He's quite and respectful and he seems to be getting some things done. He even fought until the legislature produced an infrastructure bill. Something his predecessor talked a lot about but never seemed to make any headway on. He's not calling anyone derogatory names and DC seems to be running along fairly smoothly. Although it's still a long way from the better days when there wasn't quite so much partisanship. While I think the man has done a reasonable job as president, I'm not so excited to see him run again. I'd like to see some younger folks in all the higher branches of government. I don't mean 25 year olds, but 40-50 would be good.
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What does his predecessor have to to with anything? He's no longer involved.
 

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Hi WIP

WIP said:
Of course but technically the move wasn't for the purpose of helping the nation and in fact could put our nation at risk.
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That's exactly what I'm talking about. Now, there's no way that the work the president has done to address the gas price issue is putting our nation at risk.

Then, as your proof, you put forth some scenario that doesn't even prove what it is that you're trying to prove.

WIP said:
The people are hungry and beginning to lose faith in your ability to lead so in an effort to help sway their opinion you temporarily relax the rules on rationing. Is that really helping them? It could be helping them to their death.
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It 'could' be helping them to their death? It also 'could' be helping them live through the crisis. It also 'could' make no difference at all once the cause of the hunger issue is resolved. Furthermore, presidents always work to help the people when a crisis comes up. President Obama fairly safely brought us back from total financial collapse by giving out funds to keep businesses afloat. So did the Trump administration when Covid came. Businesses all over the nation got funds to see them through tough times. It's what the leader of a nation is generally supposed to do.

As far as I'm concerned, this opening the spigot of the SPR to bring us through a crisis that is literally crippling poor families who are living pay check to pay check anyway, is for. When it's over, we put the oil back. That's another one of the things that Trump said he'd do, but he didn't. So, at least a part of the reason that our SPR is as low as it is, is because of wonder boy. Trump lies about everything. It's his native tongue:
www.factcheck.org

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Oil Stocks Declined Under Trump, Contrary to His Claim - FactCheck.org

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was set up in the 1970s as an emergency source of oil in the event of unexpected supply disruptions. When Donald Trump took office as president in January 2017, the reserve held 695.1 million barrels of crude oil. The last full week before he left office in...
www.factcheck.org www.factcheck.org

BTW, if you take the time to click that link, the first statement that you'll read is that this 'supply chain disruption' is exactly 'why' we created the SPR. Hmmmmm. So this conspiracy has been working out since the 70's. President Biden did exactly what he was supposed to do with the SPR. Now, we'll wait and see if he will refill it when the supply chain gets back to reasonably normal. Unlike his predecessor who was like the son who told his father that he would do something...but didn't.

God bless,
Ted

God bless,
Ted
 
Hi again WIP

WIP said:
It was a politically motivated action designed to help gain votes at the next election. I don't recall the release of the strategic reserve this spring to be of much effect.
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I'd say that's probably just as much a made up statement as the one I replied to in the previous post about food shortages. The people of the nation where hurting over the price of gas. As I mentioned in the above post, it had a real effect on working people who didn't have savings and were living pretty much hand to mouth as it was. You are correct that it wasn't of much effect and I think most everyone understood that it wasn't some magic bullet. Just like the federal tax abatement, we're talking 18¢ on a gallon of gas that costs $5. Not much help, but if you take all of the efforts together, gas has dropped about $1 from its peak. I'm confident that President Biden was aware of that also, which explains why he didn't stop at that single effort. He increased the amount of ethanol that gas could have, thereby switching some of the price structure on to corn crops. He released oil from the SPR. He is talking about an abatement of the federal fuels tax. And he's encouraging producers to increase output. All of these efforts combined are making some difference and I'm confident that he's not doing it for votes. But, I do allow that we live in a nation today that is more divided on political thought than it has ever been.

WIP said:
What does his predecessor have to to with anything? He's no longer involved.
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Nothing really, as far as this issue. I was just noting how President Biden is doing all of his work in a relatively quiet and respectful manner...and getting things done. President Trump did everything in a loud and demeaning manner...and got very little done. No one likes to work with a bully. It's pretty much what separates free democratic society leadership from despot led societies.

God bless,
Ted
 
I'm understanding of the need for bailouts but we'll political favors and free money ,I saw locals who I cut off for non payments ,never catch up on utilities,others blow it on toys as my neighbors did. I didn't .I didn't need it .it just fixed my house on things it needed and my trucks.


Rent wise you wouldn't last locally with only 1200 .that would pay my mortgage for a month .
 
Hi King Dan of Great the 1st

Well, according to usinflationratecalculator we ended the last 12 months (through June 2022) at 9.1%. Of course, for us retired folks, the government already gave us almost 8%, so keeping my head above water.

God is good!!!

God bless,
Ted
 
Hi all,

Woohoo!!! Gas is down to $3.39 at my local Sam's today. God is good.

As I've said before, I fully expect, within the next 6 months, and barring any new crisis catastrophes that might effect the price of oil, that gas will settle somewhere between $2.50-3.00/gallon. That's a price that can sustain fairly normal profit margins while keeping oil flowing. It also allows that we've just passed through an inflationary period where the base price of pretty much everything has gone up by 15-20%. Had we not gone through this inflationary period, then I would have set my mark at $2.00-2.50/gallon.

Of course most economies do regularly go through inflationary periods. Otherwise, bread would still be 19¢ and the average entry level worker would be making $2.40/hour.

God bless,
Ted
 
Hi all,

Well, it's been a couple of weeks since my last report on oil/gas pricing and it looks good for the consumer. Crude oil is down to about $88/bbl and regular unleaded gas is selling in my neighborhood as low as $3.14, although the average is more like $3.19/gal. Somebody seems to be doing something right as far as getting fuel back down to more reasonable pricing.

As I've said earlier, I still expect oil to sell around $70/bbl and unleaded gas at $2.50-$3/gal. This 'crisis' is really no more than the recent crisis we've had in the increased pricing of many commodities. Twice in the recent past a 2x4 was selling for nearly $10 for an 8' length and now it's back down to a more manageable $4-5. Right now, a 2x4x8 stud is selling for $4.98 at my local Lowes. Eggs have gotten into the mix now. I paid $2.50 for a dozen eggs just yesterday that recently cost only $1 or so. But I expect that, too, will be only temporary.

We will get through this and America will still be a strong economy for the foreseeable future, so long as the national and world crisis points remain stable. While I'd hope that neither Pres. Biden nor former Pres. Trump run for office in 2024, I am firmly convinced that Pres. Biden has been a much more steady hand at the helm than his predecessor.

God bless,
Ted
 
miamited said:
Trump run for office in 2024, I am firmly convinced that Pres. Biden has been a much more steady hand at the helm than his predecessor.
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While I am not a Trump supporter, I do not agree with your assessment of President Biden's success as our leader verses Trump. I believe a large part of our economic problems have been the result of the Biden administration and the congressional actions taken. It was not difficult to predict a major inflation when spending multiple trillions of dollars from thin air.

I am in the same camp with you with regard to the next election. I certainly hope that Biden and Trump are not the best we can come up with. I was shocked to think that they were the best we could find as it is. I never supported either one previously and I wouldn't support them in the next election either. Neither of them is qualified even remotely to fill the most important role as president of the United States...Commander-In-Chief of our armed forces. I have to laugh when I think about the possibility of ever having to look to them for direction in the event that we would need to. Yikes!
 
HI WIP

Well, according to the polls, your position is in line with a large percentage of Americans. That's ok. I'm not clear on what your 'from thin air' comment is a reference to, as far as any spending bills that have been passed. The last year of record shows that the U.S. took in some $4T in revenue in 2021. That's just for one year and most spending bills cover a span of several years. That means that even a $3T spending bill likely isn't some plan to spend $3T in a single year so it has multiple years to take in the funds necessary to fund the bill. Quite frankly, I've often been amused by those who say that our government creates money out of thin air or just keeps printing money to pay bills. Neither of those claims are ever true, as far as I'm aware.

But yes, neither Biden, and most especially not Trump, should be on our next election ticket. But, it can't be denied that gas prices are falling as we were promised by Pres. Biden. We do have an infrastructure bill in place today that was promised as far back as Trump's 2016 campaign. Medical care coverage is still handled through the ACA (Affordable Care Act) that thankfully was not gutted by the last administration. Poor people need healthcare just as much as anyone else. From where I stand, Pres. Biden has accomplished quite a lot more in getting good things done for the nation than his predecessor, but I do fully understand that the issue of inflation has caused more pain to a lot of people who then blame the current leader for the issue. I'm not sure that's fair or the right place to place the blame, but it is what it is.

We do not live in a socialist economy and so the government isn't generally the place where prices are decided. In a free capitalist economy, prices are generally market driven. We the people, decide with our purses and wallets, what commodities are valuable to us and, through changes in supply and demand as time marches forward, what we will pay for them. I believe, should the earth endure that long, that a day will come when we won't be able, at any cost, to get another drop of oil from all the depleted reserves lying underground. When that happens, should gasoline still be needed, we'll likely not find it even though we'd be willing to pay $1,000/gal. According to many of the experts, that day is only about 50 years away. What do you think? Should we begin preparing for it now?

God bless,
Ted
 
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