Did it protect people? Yes, it did. Was it as good as we expected, using data from similar viruses? No. But it saved lives. We know this because we can compare deaths in states with such distancing, compared to states that did not do it. Here's a pretty good summary:
It also had another benefit. The rule were really effective against influenza virus, and deaths from influenza were dramatically down in the pandemic years.
Don't remember that, but those who avoided crowds were a lot less likely to die than those who attended crowd events. Each state did their own thing. How did that work out? (Barbarian checks)
Methods
Using social distancing data from tracked mobile phones in all US counties, we estimated the relationship between social distancing (average proportion of mobile phone usage outside of home between March and May 2020) and COVID-19 mortality (when the state in which the county is located reported its first confirmed case of COVID-19 and up to May 31, 2020) with a mixed-effects negative binomial model while distinguishing COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes from total COVID-19 deaths and accounting for social distancing– and COVID-19–related factors (including the period between the report of the first confirmed case of COVID-19 and May 31, 2020; population density; social vulnerability; and hospital resource availability). Results from the mixed-effects negative binomial model were then used to generate marginal effects at the mean, which helped separate the influence of social distancing on COVID-19 deaths from other covariates while calculating COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people.
Results
We observed that a 1% increase in average mobile phone usage outside of home between March and May 2020 led to a significant increase in COVID-19 mortality by a factor of 1.18 (P<.001), while every 1% increase in the average proportion of mobile phone usage outside of home in February 2020 was found to significantly decrease COVID-19 mortality by a factor of 0.90 (P<.001).
Previous studies on the impact of social distancing on COVID-19 mortality in the United States have predominantly examined this relationship at the national level and have not separated COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes from total COVID-19 deaths. ...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic Deaths
JAMA Health Forum. 2024;5(7):e242006. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.2006
Findings This cross-sectional analysis including all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia found that if all states had imposed COVID-19 restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most (least) restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower (13%-17% higher) than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year period analyzed. Behavior changes were associated with 49% to 79% of this overall difference.
Meaning These findings indicate that collectively, stringent COVID-19 restrictions were associated with substantial decreases in excess deaths during the pandemic.
That's up to 240,000 lives saved. Would that justify tighter restrictions on social interaction?