http://ldolphin.org/quakes2.html
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INTRODUCTION
According to a number of Christian writers and teachers on Bible prophecy, Jesus predicted in the Olivet Discourse that a pronounced increase in the frequency and intensity of earthquakes would occur just prior to His return to the earth. Many of the same writers and teachers claim that the decade of the 1990s has experienced a pronounced increase in both the frequency and intensity of earthquakes as compared to the earlier decades of the twentieth century. This coincidence of Jesus' prophetic statement and recent seismic events is viewed by these writers and teachers as clear demonstration of the nearness of the return of Christ.
Hal Lindsey, the world's best known Bible prophecy teacher and author of 17 books on prophecy, writes in one of his latest books:
Earthquakes continue to increase in frequency and intensity, just as the Bible predicts for the last days before the return of Christ. History shows that the number of killer quakes remained fairly constant until the 1950s - averaging between two to four per decade. In the 1950s, there were nine. In the 1960s, there were 13. In the 1970s, there were 51. In the 1980s, there were 86. From 1990 through 1996, there have been more than 150.
1
What is the source of Lindsey's statistics? In his book Planet Earth 2000 A.D. Lindsey cites the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in Boulder, Colorado.
2 Yet he does not give details of the report (author, date, report name, location, etc.).3
Lindsey's earthquake frequency numbers have been widely circulated by popular prophecy speakers such as Chuck Missler and Jack Van Impe.4 However, Missler and Van Impe do not give any further information on the source of Lindsey's statistics.
Grant R. Jeffrey, another Bible prophecy teacher and author of nine best-selling books, could be the source of Lindsey's statistics. Two years before Lindsey's statement was published, Jeffrey wrote:
However, since A.D. 1900, the growth in major earthquakes has been relentless. From 1900 to 1949 it averaged three major quakes per decade. From 1949 the increase became awesome with 9 killer quakes in the 1950's; 13 in the 60's; 56 in the 1970's and an amazing 74 major quakes in the 1980's. Finally, in the 1990's, as [sic] the present rate, we will experience 125 major killer quakes in this decade (Source: U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Report, Boulder, Colorado).5
J. R. Church and Gary Stearman, editors of the magazine Prophecy in the News, argued that data show a pronounced increase in the frequency of the largest earthquakes in the 1990s. Church writes of a distinct increase in our century.6 Stearman gives specific numbers of earthquakes, and he cites as his source the October 11, 1995 issue of the newspaper Philadelphia Inquirer:
According to that newspaper the number of Richter magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquakes worldwide has been increasing from nine in the 1950s, to 13 in the 1960s, to 51 in the 1970s, to 86 in the 1980s, and to more than 100 in the 1990s.7
The computer-searchable archives of the Philadelphia Inquirer reveal no article on earthquake frequency in that newspaper on October 11, 1995 and no other issue of that newspaper during the decade of the 1990s.8 What is the source of Stearman's statistics? When several readers of Stearman's article confronted him with much more earthquake data than in the mysterious citation from the newspaper, he apologized in print for the bad statistics, but, then, after his apology, reaffirmed that earthquakes are indeed increasing.9
John Hagee, founder and pastor of the 15,000-member Cornerstone Church in San Antonio, authored the book
Beginning of the End which became a New York Times bestseller.
Hagee references a report from the National Earthquake Information
Center of the U.S. Geological Survey: "…the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 or greater) have stayed relatively constant…." and notes within the government report "…the last decade has produced substantially fewer large earthquakes than shown in the long-term averages…."10 Remarkably,
Hagee goes on to
contradict directly the government report: "…
it is true that the Bible predicts that earthquakes will increase in the last days, and the number of earthquakes measured has increased 1.58 times between 1983 and 1992."11 The documentation given to support the supposed increase is faulty. Adequate
reason is not given as to why the conclusion of the government report (i.e. decreasing earthquakes) is to be rejected.12
A different set of earthquake frequency numbers appears in the recent writings of
Peter and Paul Lalonde.
These new statistics are used to indicate a very large increase in earthquake frequency in the 1990s:
Well, according to sources from Energy, Mines and Resources Canada there were, from 1900 to 1969, about 48 earthquakes that registered at 6.5 or more on the Richter Scale. This is an average of 6 per decade. From 1970 to 1989 there were 33 earthquakes measuring 6.5 or more. This is an average of 17 per decade. From January 1990 to July 1990 there were 10 earthquakes of 6.5 or greater. This is 10 major earthquakes in just six months. And from July 1990 to October 1992 there were 133 earthquakes which measured at 6.5 or greater. This averages out to 600 per decade.13
What is the specific source within Energy, Mines and Resources Canada that supplied these statistics? Again, details are lacking.
In light of such slipshod documentation, we are concerned about the widespread claim within the Christian community that earthquakes are on the increase. Can these recent statements be supported by rigorous documentation? Or have the deployment of more seismographs during the last few decades made detection and cataloging of earthquakes more complete, thereby enhancing the perception of increase? Does the public have the perception that earthquakes are on the increase because earthquakes now afflict our larger urbanized populations, and, therefore, are more often reported by the media? We believe the public perception and media characterization promotes the self-sustaining "urban legend" even among the Christian Church.14 This "legend" widespread in western culture regards earthquakes of the twentieth century to be on the increase. We will cite data that directly confront the urban legend.
