notapseudonym said:
yes, I have a few problems, but only a few
How did we end up with two humans in the begining? Lets say we have two "cubes", each with 100 sides. Each side has a number. We roll the two, what is the probability that they will come up with the same number?
Even greater odds for things happening in the universe.
If the world started with a series of probabilities, does it not have to continue in this manner?
First off, you are using "probabilities" and "inprobabilities" interchangably, so it makes it tough to figure out what you are asking.
How did we end up with two humans in the begining? Lets say we have two "cubes", each with 100 sides. Each side has a number. We roll the two, what is the probability that they will come up with the same number?
Well, you are assuming the two humans evolve completely distinct of each other, find eachother both as humans, and mate. That is not how it happens. I agree, were that the case, it would be highly inprobable.
They both evolve along side of eachother, tiny step by tiny step, through the sharing of genetic material and passing those changes on down the line to descendents. So your analogy doesn't hold like that. A better analogy would be a 1000-sided dice, where 999 sides all have 1 and 1 side as 0. So long as the difference never reaches, say, 50, you have the same species capable of mating.
Also, for example when 2 fifth cousins marry, the difference is reduced. Makes it tough to get to 50 without seperating the groups.
Even greater odds for things happening in the universe.
If the world started with a series of probabilities, does it not have to continue in this manner?
I think you are looking at this in two ways incorrectly.
First off, the pure "probability" portion of my previous posts was in respect to the quantum world. That has almost no manifestations with evolution, the formation of stars, etc. I was just opining on some of the properties of our fundamental universe.
Secondly, you seem to think that evolution "aimed" to make humans. Going back a few millions years, and trying to determine the odds of humans evolving, you would find it highly inprobable. Very long odds indeed.
However, there would be equally long odds that dolphins would build cities, cats would learn to walk upright and gorillas would developing writing. Those were all "possible", but not highly probable, millions of years ago.
Back then, there were countless possibilities, all with low probabilities. The one we live in happened to be the one that won out. Looking back, we can trace how it happened. But looking foward from back then, you would say the odds are near impossible.
Like winning the lottery. On the day you buy the ticket, you know the probability of winning is extremely low. There are millions of other people who could win. However, on the day you actually win the lottery, your odds shoot up from near zero to 100%. At that point, it is very easy to see why you won.
So we are still dealing with inprobabilities today.
Yes we are. For example, which one of a man's millions of sperm fertilizes any of hundreds of eggs creates a probability of what the offspring will look like.
As the new organism is created, there are certain probabilities that there are mutations and changes to the parent DNA. Overtime, these probabilities can manifest itself as a property of the species, or given enough seperation, distinct species.
What is the probability of things reoccuring in the same manner all the time
In terms of evolution, extremely low. For example, the odds of having two-non identical babies with the same DNA combination is near zero. For two eggs and two sperm to have the same 1/2 of genetic material, plus the same mutations, is astronomically low.
In terms of the universe, very high. Although this is a tad beyond my laymen's understanding of quantum mechanics, the probabilities of any quantum fluctuations affecting the visible rules and structure of the universe is also near zero. For example, a particle has a probability (although very low) of being pretty much anywhere in the unverse. At any given time, it could be "somewhere else" other than in my fingertip. However, the odds of every particle in my finger tip being "somewhere else" at the same time is astronomically low. Thus, what we perceive in the physical universe is extremely consistant.
In short, probabilities are just that. Once something improbable happens, you can't say its impossible anymore.