PDoug said:
In as much as the only way you can exactly predict what will happen at an award show 6 months from now, which unfolds precisely the way you want it to unfold, is if you monitor and control everyone and every event leading up to the show (as well as the show itself).
I understand the intuitive appeal of a claim like this, but I think it is not correct. I think that certain kinds of outcomes can indeed effectively be assured even if some variables are not controlled. This is a very complex issue, however, and for either of us to make our cases stick would probably involve a lot of work.
I will try to at least say something about the position that I hold - namely, that some outcomes can be guaranteed even if some variables are not controllable. Let's say that I am mysteriously drafted into the NFL as a wide receiver. I am a middle aged man with almost no athletic skill. Let's say that I line up at the flanker postion and am being covered one on one by the NFL's best coverage men - whoever that happens to be (let's say Deion Sanders).
The play is a pass to me. The ball is snapped and I start to run downfield. The key question: are there variables that Deion cannot control or predict and yet which he can "accomodate" and
assure that his goal of knocking down the pass is achieved?
I think that there are. If I cut to the left, my slow speed is such that Deion can almost instantly get between me and the ball. Same deal if I cut to the right. His skill and speed are such that he can always react fact enough to ensure that I am not open when the ball arrives. Of course, Deion does not know which way I will cut nor does he control this. And, as part of this example, the quarterback does not throw the ball until I make my cut.
Now of course, there are other variables beyond Deion's control that he
cannot accomodate and which
will allow me to catch the ball. Let's say that Deion's foot gets caught in a seam in the astroturf - I mean really caught. Even though he is a far superior athlete than I am, his being stuck in one place means that I will be able to catch the ball.
I expect that, given more time to think, I could come up with a more watertight example. However, I think that this example powerfully supports the intuition that certain outcomes can indeed be guaranteed by some agent (Deion in this case) even if that agent does not control all variables.