Then what you are saying is you believe born of water is a reference to baptism.
No. 'Born of water' is a reference to the new life we are raised up to when we repent, symbolized in the act of water baptism. Paul speaks of this 'newness of life' through baptism here:
"4 Therefore we have been buried with Him through baptism into death, so that as Christ was raised from the dead through the glory of the Father, so we too might walk in newness of life." (Romans 6:4 NIV)
The point being, baptism is portrayed in the Bible as birthing new life. But without faith in Christ, the life born as a result of repentance, symbolized in water baptism, is only the natural 'birth' of a fleshly, unspiritual person--one who can not, and will not see or enter into the kingdom of God. We must
also be born of the Spirit to see the kingdom of God and be saved. A baptism and birth of both water (repentance) AND Spirit. Nicodemus, and many other Jews had the 'water' part--the repentance part--down. What they lacked was the spiritual component necessary to inherit the kingdom. They were not born from above.
Which means you believe you must be baptized in water first then born again.
Only if I believe that the water Jesus is talking about is, and has to be, literal baptismal water. Which I don't. So I don't believe that you have to be literally water baptized then born again. I myself was born again and then water baptized two months later.
The birth of flesh Jesus is talking about is the fleshly, outward birth, or newness of life, of the one who has (tried) to obey God. The Judaizers are Paul's example of these fleshly, unspiritual children of Hagar who seek to obey God and are born in that sense, but who have not been born as a result of the promise--the spiritual birth.
Sorry bro, it just doesn't fly.
You'd see that it does if you could just see that I'm not saying literal water baptism is the birth by water Jesus is talking about, but rather the repentance that water baptism represents is the fleshly birth Jesus is talking about. That repentance is not enough (case in point--the Judaizers who seek to obey God, but reject justification through faith in Christ). You must also be born of faith in Christ and justification through his blood.
For flesh gives BIRTH to flesh is a clear reference to natural birth.
It's definitely a reference to birth. I've shown you how the Bible figuratively connects baptism and birth. John 3 is just another example of that figurative connection.
For the Spirit gives BIRTH to spirit is a clear reference to spiritual birth.
CASE CLOSED !
JLB
Okay, case closed for you.
I personally see no value in interpreting the water that births flesh as natural child birth. It has no significance. But when you understand the water that births flesh is outward repentance, symbolized by the commanded act of repentance-water baptism, it has much significance.
The significant point being, outward repentance is only half of what is needed to expect to see and enter into the kingdom of God. Many people, like Nicodemus and the Jews and many other people through all of human history understand that part well
but are deceived into thinking that's enough to be saved. What they need to know is that is not enough. You must
also be born again, from above, by the Spirit of God. Then you will be children of Sarah (figuratively, birthed to new life through the New Covenant) and will see and enter into the inheritance as a son and daughter, not cast out as a slave who does not inherit the Master's estate.